Family policy alone cannot overcome demographic challenges.

The current edition of the OECD's biennial overview of social indicators for 2024 looks at the development of the birth rate in industrialised countries. This points out a long-term decline in the birth rate in the OECD countries. This was only temporarily halted in the 2000s. The birth rate has been falling again since the global financial crisis. According to the OECD, this shows that family policy measures and an improved work-life balance are not enough to overcome the demographic challenges.

Falling birth rates

Since the 1960s, OECD countries have seen a steady trend of falling birth rates. The OECD average has fallen from 3.3 children per woman in 1960 to 1.5 children per woman in 2021/2022, which is well below the rate of 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population level. In Germany, the figure fell from 2.4 to just under 1.5 children per woman. The lowest fertility rates in the OECD area were recorded in Italy and Spain with 1.2 children per woman and in Korea in particular, where the total fertility rate in 2023 was estimated to be just 0.7 children per woman.

Proportion of childless women on the rise

The decline in the birth rate is due to the fact that women are having fewer children or none at all. Childlessness has increased across the OECD, but there are country-specific differences in terms of timing and extent. The proportion of childless women born in 1975 is 23 per cent in Italy, 24 per cent in Spain and 28 per cent in Japan and has risen by more than ten percentage points in all three countries compared to the 1955 cohort. In countries such as the Netherlands and the United States, a significant increase can be observed between the 1935 and 1955 birth cohorts. In Germany, childlessness rose from 16 per cent among women born in 1955 to 20 per cent among women born in 1975.

Women become mothers much later

The decline in the total fertility rate is accompanied by an increase in the age at which mothers have their first child. The average age of mothers at their first birth has risen from 28.5 years in 2000 to 30.8 years in 2022. An increase from 28.8 years to 31.5 years is observed for Germany. In an OECD comparison, Korea has the highest median age at first birth at over 33 years, followed by Ireland, Spain, Luxembourg, Italy, Switzerland, Japan and Greece with a median age of over 32 years.

Childcare and family benefits

In recent years, policymakers in all OECD countries have focussed on reconciling work and family life. This explains why, unlike in the past, the employment rate of women today is positively linked to parenthood. Countries such as Denmark, France, Norway, Hungary and Sweden spend around three per cent or more of their gross domestic product on family benefits and early childhood education and care. According to the OECD, this has a significant impact on children's opportunities for participation and the social situation of families as a whole. However, with the exception of France, the total fertility rate in these countries is in line with the OECD average of 1.5 children per woman. Labour and family policy measures therefore cannot be used to draw conclusions about the decline in the fertility rate and the differences across nations.

Demographic challenges cannot be solved through family policy

From the OECD's point of view, it is advisable to consider how general policy can be adapted to a "low fertility future". This is because any increase in the birth rate today would only be reflected in an increase in the proportion of people of working age in a span of 20 years. According to the OECD, such policy measures, which go beyond family policy, should include immigration, address the labour market participation of currently underrepresented groups and focus on measures to increase labour productivity in order to mitigate the economic and fiscal impact of a potentially shrinking workforce.