Long-term decline in the birth rate in industrialised countries
Family policy alone cannot overcome demographic challenges.
VS – 07/2024
The
current edition of the OECD's
biennial overview of social indicators for 2024 looks at the development of
the birth rate in industrialised countries. This points out a long-term decline
in the birth rate in the OECD countries. This was only temporarily halted in
the 2000s. The birth rate has been falling again since the global financial
crisis. According to the OECD, this shows that family policy measures and an
improved work-life balance are not enough to overcome the demographic
challenges.
Falling birth rates
Since
the 1960s, OECD countries have seen a steady trend of falling birth rates. The
OECD average has fallen from 3.3 children per woman in 1960 to 1.5 children per
woman in 2021/2022, which is well below the rate of 2.1 children per woman
required to maintain a stable population level. In Germany, the figure fell
from 2.4 to just under 1.5 children per woman. The lowest fertility rates in
the OECD area were recorded in Italy and Spain with 1.2 children per woman and
in Korea in particular, where the total fertility rate in 2023 was estimated to
be just 0.7 children per woman.
Proportion of childless women on the rise
The
decline in the birth rate is due to the fact that women are having fewer
children or none at all. Childlessness has increased across the OECD, but there
are country-specific differences in terms of timing and extent. The proportion
of childless women born in 1975 is 23 per cent in Italy, 24 per cent in Spain
and 28 per cent in Japan and has risen by more than ten percentage points in
all three countries compared to the 1955 cohort. In countries such as the
Netherlands and the United States, a significant increase can be observed
between the 1935 and 1955 birth cohorts. In Germany, childlessness rose from 16
per cent among women born in 1955 to 20 per cent among women born in 1975.
Women become mothers much later
The
decline in the total fertility rate is accompanied by an increase in the age at
which mothers have their first child. The average age of mothers at their first
birth has risen from 28.5 years in 2000 to 30.8 years in 2022. An increase from
28.8 years to 31.5 years is observed for Germany. In an OECD comparison, Korea
has the highest median age at first birth at over 33 years, followed by
Ireland, Spain, Luxembourg, Italy, Switzerland, Japan and Greece with a median
age of over 32 years.
Childcare and family benefits
In
recent years, policymakers in all OECD countries have focussed on reconciling
work and family life. This explains why, unlike in the past, the employment
rate of women today is positively linked to parenthood. Countries such as
Denmark, France, Norway, Hungary and Sweden spend around three per cent or more
of their gross domestic product on family benefits and early childhood
education and care. According to the OECD, this has a significant impact on
children's opportunities for participation and the social situation of families
as a whole. However, with the exception of France, the total fertility rate in
these countries is in line with the OECD average of 1.5 children per woman.
Labour and family policy measures therefore cannot be used to draw conclusions
about the decline in the fertility rate and the differences across nations.
Demographic challenges cannot be solved through family policy
From
the OECD's point of view, it is advisable to consider how general policy can be
adapted to a "low fertility future". This is because any increase in
the birth rate today would only be reflected in an increase in the proportion
of people of working age in a span of 20 years. According to the OECD, such
policy measures, which go beyond family policy, should include immigration,
address the labour market participation of currently underrepresented groups
and focus on measures to increase labour productivity in order to mitigate the
economic and fiscal impact of a potentially shrinking workforce.