
Is it the end of the Growth and Stability Pact?
COVID-19 slows down debt reduction.
Dr. S-W – 07/2020
Even before the COVID-19 crisis, to put it
nicely, the Stability and Growth Pact was managed more on the basis of
principles than rules. In southern Europe - and also in France - the Pact and
its amendments were in any case largely regarded as nonsense ("silly"),
which is maintained for appearance for Germany's sake. On
2 February, the EU Commission had already put an amendment to the pact up for
discussion.
At the moment, the "need to repair” the severe economic slump
makes compliance impossible for the time being, and its future seems uncertain.
March this year, the European Commission activated the general escape clause,
which means nothing more than a temporary suspension of the Pact with the
consequence that the Member States can spend what they consider necessary.
On
1 July the European
Fiscal Committee also openly recommended the abolition of the debt ceiling
of 60% of the gross domestic product. The Committee is an independent advisory
body to the EU Commission. Its Chairman, Niels Thysgen, explained that there
was no point in setting an unrealistic target. The European average debt ratio
is expected to rise to 102% by the end of 2020, far too much to ever fall to
60%. According to Thysgen, this would be too much to ask of the EU States. The
Fiscal Committee would therefore work on new targets but this time they would
be tailored to the individual circumstances of each Member State from the
outset.
The Fiscal Committee also warned against
too low net public investment. The net increase in public assets (i.e. after
deduction of devaluations) was practically "zero" and had not
recovered since the economic crisis of 2010. Here, the Member States had to be
more ambitious, and the EU budget volume of 1.85 trillion euros was also too
low to raise Europe's growth potential.