Eurostat: Migration is stabilising the social security system in Europe.

The population in the European Union is expected to decline more sharply in the coming decades than previously assumed. A key reason for this is lower migration assumptions. This development also has implications for social security systems, particularly in light of the ageing population and the shrinking workforce.

New projections paint a pessimistic picture

According to the projections, the EU’s population is expected to decline only slightly between 2025 and 2050, by 1.5 per cent or 6.7 million people. By the end of the century, however, it is projected to fall by 11.7 per cent compared to 2025, from 451.8 million to 398.8 million. This corresponds to a decline of 53 million people. According to Eurostat’s population projections, Germany will experience a similar trend to the EU as a whole. The population is expected to decline from the current 83.6 million by 3.9 per cent by 2050 and by 10.7 per cent by 2100, reaching 74.7 million people.

Based on the projections, it is expected that Europe will reach its population peak in 2029, with an estimated population of 453.3 million. Germany has already reached its peak in 2025 with 83.6 million people. According to Eurostat’s forecasts, the population will start to decline as early as this year – albeit only marginally, by around 75,000 people. Eurostat’s forecasts show a very heterogeneous population trend across Europe. Luxembourg and Malta will not reach their peak population until around 2075.

Migration stabilises population trends

Without migration, the projections indicate that the population in all EU countries would decline significantly by 2100: by 10.5 per cent or 45 million people by 2050, and by as much as 40.5 per cent or nearly 183 million people by 2100.

This effect is also of central importance to social security systems, since immigration increases the number of people in employment, thereby stabilising the revenue base. In Germany, the stabilising effect of migration is even more pronounced than the EU average. Without immigration, the decline would be 13.2 per cent by 2050 and 43 per cent by 2100. This effect is particularly pronounced in Malta, Luxembourg and Spain. Without migration, the population there would shrink by 56 per cent and 37 per cent respectively (Malta, Luxembourg) and by over 50 per cent (Spain) by 2100. In Bulgaria, by contrast, the stabilising influence is comparatively small, reducing the decline by only 9.5 percentage points.

Demographic change and social security

The Eurostat forecasts highlight demographic change in Europe and its far-reaching implications for social security systems, as well as for employment and the world of work. The projected decline in the working-age population can only be offset by an increase in labour force participation and by productivity gains resulting from technological progress. This places considerable demands on the continuous upskilling of the workforce, as well as on measures relating to rehabilitation, health and safety at work.

At the same time, the increasing ageing of the population is leading to a growing need for care and support services. This not only poses a financial challenge for the social system, but also exacerbates the challenges facing service providers against the backdrop of a declining working-age population.

Population data for European monitoring processes

The new population projections will be incorporated into country-specific monitoring within the framework of the European Semester, as well as into various reports, including the report on ‘Adequate social protection in old age’ by the Working Group on the Adequacy and Sustainability of Old-Age Pensions (Working Group ADAGE) and the Ageing Report 2027 by the Working Group on Ageing of the Economic Policy Committee. These reports will assess the extent to which Member States have taken precautions in their social protection systems, in light of pessimistic forecasts, to ensure an adequate level of benefits in the long term whilst also safeguarding their financial sustainability.