EU population is ageing and will shrink in the long term

People in the EU are living longer, while the population is expected to shrink in the long term. The implications for the labour market, social protection, health and long-term care are set out in the European Commission’s third report on demographic change, published in July.

Prepared by the EU’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), the report describes demographic changes and their impact on competitiveness, innovation, social cohesion and sustainable development. It also highlights how policymakers and society can respond to these developments.

Shrinking workforce and growing share of older people

According to the report, the EU’s population is expected to shrink and continue to age. Currently standing at 450.6 million, it is approaching its peak. The population is projected to fall to around 445 million by 2050 and to 398.8 million by 2100 – a decline of around 11.7 per cent.

At the same time, life expectancy is increasing. In 2024, life expectancy at birth stood at 81.5 years. By 2100, it could rise to over 90 years for women and 86 years for men. By 2050, almost one in three EU citizens could be aged 65 or over, compared with around one in five today.

These developments affect many areas. As the number of people of working age declines while the number of older people grows, labour shortages could worsen, placing additional pressure on social security, healthcare and long-term care systems, as well as on regional cohesion. However, an increase in healthy life expectancy also creates opportunities for people to remain actively involved in society for longer, whether through paid employment or voluntary work.

Attracting more people to the labour market

The effects of demographic change are particularly evident in the labour market. As fewer people of working age are available in the future, making better use of the existing workforce will become increasingly important. According to the report, around 20 per cent of people of working age are currently not integrated into the labour market. The gender employment gap remains at around ten percentage points. In addition, around eight million young people are neither in employment nor in education or training.

The report therefore highlights a number of measures, including increasing women’s participation in the labour market, providing opportunities for upskilling and retraining, enabling older people to remain in employment for longer, and boosting productivity through innovation and artificial intelligence. The immigration of skilled workers can also make an important contribution to meeting labour market needs.

Securing pensions in the long term

As the population ages, the question also arises of how pension systems can be financed in the long term while ensuring adequate retirement incomes. According to the report’s authors, these challenges remain manageable. However, reforms aimed at ensuring the financial sustainability of pension systems can have different effects on individual members, depending on their education, gender, social background and age group.

The report also refers to the package of measures to strengthen supplementary pensions, presented by the Commission in November 2025. The package is intended to help secure retirement incomes while also mobilising additional long-term capital for investment in Europe.

Growing demand for healthcare and long-term care

As the population ages, demand for healthcare and long-term care is increasing. The number of people requiring support could rise from 36 million to 48 million by 2070. At the same time, the proportion of people aged over 80 is expected to double. Public expenditure on long-term care is therefore also likely to increase significantly.

A particular challenge is the shortage of skilled stuff. The care sector is already finding it difficult to recruit and retain sufficient numbers of qualified staff in the long term. As the number of people of working age declines in the future whilst the need for care increases, pressure on the care workforce is likely to intensify further.

In this context, the report refers to existing EU initiatives such as the European Care Strategy and the Council Recommendation on access to affordable high-quality long-term care. According to the report, innovation and efficiency gains can help ensure that high-quality care services remain available in the face of demographic change.

What happens next?

The European Commission intends to address the growing need for care and support in particular. In her State of the Union Address on 16 September, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a “European Care Deal”. The initiative is intended to address the challenges facing care and support services as a result of demographic change.