Public expenditure on long-term care currently averages 1.7 per cent of GDP in the EU. The AWG standard scenario projects an increase to 2.8 per cent in 2070. The increase should be significantly lower in Germany, from 1.6 per cent today up to 1.8 per cent. Demographic development also plays a role here, as it is becoming more noticeable, especially in the privately financed expenditure sector (through the substitute care insurance), which relatively relieves the public sector.
Future cost developments will be mainly affected by two drivers: demographic change as well as non-demographic factors, such as the decreasing availability of informal care due to societal change.