National competences under pressure?

One thing is clear: the 2028–2034 MFF is about more than the allocation of just under two trillion euros.

The new budget architecture does not, in itself, alter the formal division of competences between the EU and the Member States. Nevertheless, the relationship between European governance and national responsibility could change. If the disbursement of EU funds is linked to previously agreed reform steps, EU-level influence over national reform processes could increase.

How far this influence extends in future will depend on the detailed design of the new rules. The key questions will be which reforms are linked to EU funding and how much political room for manoeuvre Member States retain in implementing them.

For social security, it is therefore worth following the negotiations closely. Even without a formal shift in competences, the new MFF could affect the framework within which decisions on future national reforms in the field of social security are taken.